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The simple answer: When the the futures contract price is higher than the expected spot price when the contract becomes due, or during the lifetime of the contract. When the contract becomes due, the price should be exactly or very close to the spot price (the price of the commodity right now) on the day that it is due. But more often than not, this is not the case. So there would be a decline in prices as the contract approaching the last trading day (or even last minutes of trading that day) as the 'future price' is then matched to meet the spot price.

Non-perishable commodities such as oil or gold are typically contango, as it would cost money to insure, store, etc the underlying commodity. This would make the 'future' price of a contract 12 months from now greater than the spot price to buy the same barrel of oil today. Remember, one of the objectives of futures contracts is for suppliers to lock in a price to guarantee that they will have xx barrels of oil, gold, etc in the future at $yy.yy sales price today.

Contango is just an adjective that describes the actual phenomena of the futures price falling to line up with the spot price as the contract approaches maturity.

The opposite of contango is backwardation.

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Q: What does it mean that the futures contracts are in contango?
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What is a contango position?

A commodity market is in contango if the spot price is lower than the futures price. A contango position is the futures position you hold with a price higher than spot price.


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In short, whether we have Backwardation or Contango depends on how the expected future spot prices are quantified and how the related commodity strips behave. Contango and Backwardation in Common Usage Investment professionals on financial TV channels and in newspapers colloquially refer to upward trends in futures prices as contango and downward trends in futures prices as backwardation. Contango and Backwardation in Economic TheoryIn economic theory regarding Backwardation and Contango, associated with John Maynard Keyns and John Hicks, for Contango to exist, expected spot prices (someday in the future) have to be lower than current futures prices for the same future moments, and reverse has to apply for Backwardation. Thus whether we have a contango or bacwardation depends on an arbitrary forward estimate of spot prices. For example, if we estimate that today's spot price, price at which a physical commodity is trading today, is an expected spot price someday in the future, and we see an upward trend in a commodity strip (series of future contracts prices), we see a contango. On the other hand, if the futures prices in a commodity strip trending upwards are considered unbiased estimates of the expected future spot prices, meaning they are equal, there is no Contango or Backwardation to speak of. By the way, upward trend of estimates may be a result of storage expenses.


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In short, whether we have Backwardation or Contango depends on how the expected future spot prices are quantified and how the related commodity strips behave. Contango and Backwardation in Common Usage Investment professionals on financial TV channels and in newspapers colloquially refer to upward trends in futures prices as contango and downward trends in futures prices as backwardation. Contango and Backwardation in Economic TheoryIn economic theory regarding Backwardation and Contango, associated with John Maynard Keyns and John Hicks, for Contango to exist, expected spot prices (someday in the future) have to be lower than current futures prices for the same future moments, and reverse has to apply for Backwardation. Thus whether we have a contango or bacwardation depends on an arbitrary forward estimate of spot prices. For example, if we estimate that today's spot price, price at which a physical commodity is trading today, is an expected spot price someday in the future, and we see an upward trend in a commodity strip (series of future contracts prices), we see a contango. On the other hand, if the futures prices in a commodity strip trending upwards are considered unbiased estimates of the expected future spot prices, meaning they are equal, there is no Contango or Backwardation to speak of. By the way, upward trend of estimates may be a result of storage expenses.


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