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Very low.

If you start with a bag of 40 green and 40 red, the probability of getting a red is 40 in 80. The probability of getting the next one is 39 in 79. The probability of getting the next one is 38 in 78. And so on and so forth.

Calculating for 10 reds: 40/80 39/79 38/78 37/77 36/76 35/75 34/74 33/73 32/72 31/71 = 0.0005148

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Q: What is the probability that you pour all red m and ms from a red and green only bag?
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