What methods are used to estimate task duration?
What is Activity Duration?
Activity duration is the time between the start and finish of a schedule activity. For example, if we consider walking to your nearest McDonalds for a coffee an activity, it depends on how fast we walk. Lets say it is approximately 500 meters from your house, if you walk at a comfortable pace, you will take around 10 mins to reach the place.
So, the duration of the activity of walking to your nearest McDonalds is 10 mins. Once you know this number, you can prioritize or plan accordingly to meet your needs.
Tools and Techniques for Activity Duration Estimating
The project schedule depends upon the activity duration estimates. The duration estimates of activities on the critical path will determine the finish date of a project for a given start date. However, there might be many uncertainties involved in the estimate. For example, two programmers, due to the differences in their experience, will take different amounts of time to write the same program. The good news is that there are a number of tools and techniques that you can use in activity duration estimating.
Analogous estimating - Analogous estimating techniques estimate the duration of an activity based on the duration of a similar activity in a previous project. The accuracy of the estimate depends upon how similar the activities are and whether the team member who will perform the activity has the same level of expertise and experience as the team member from the previous project. This technique is useful when there is not enough detail information about the project.
Parametric estimating - This is a quantitative technique used to calculate the activity duration when the productivity rate of the resource performing the activity is available. You use a formula such as the following one to calculate the duration:
For example, if you know that a team assigned to the activity of laying a road for 40 miles can lay two miles of road in one day, the duration calculation can be performed as follows:
Activity duration = 40 miles / (2 miles/day) = 20 days
Three-point estimating - This method addresses the issue of uncertainty in estimating the activity duration. The uncertainty in the duration estimate can be calculated by making a three-point estimate in which each point corresponds to one of the following estimate types:
• Most likely scenario - The activity duration is calculated in most practical terms by factoring in resources likely to be assigned, realistic expectations of the resources, dependencies, and interruptions.
• Optimistic scenario - This is the best-case version of the situation described in the most likely scenario.
• Pessimistic scenario - This is the worst-case version of the situation described in the most likely scenario.
The spread of these three estimates determines the uncertainty. The resultant duration is calculated by taking the average of the three estimates. For example, if the duration for an activity is estimated to be 20 days for the most likely scenario, 15 days for the optimistic scenario, and 25 days for the pessimistic scenario, then the average duration is 20 days, and the uncertainty is ± 5 days, which can be expressed as:
It's equivalent to saying that the activity duration is 20 days, give or take five days.
However, the most likely scenario may be given more weight than the other two scenarios. Therefore, the expected duration can be calculated by using the following formula:
Here
ED = Expected Duration
MD = Most likely Duration
OD = Optimistic Duration
PD = Pessimistic Duration
N = Weightage for the Most likely Duration
Reserve analysis - Reserve analysis is used to incorporate a time cushion into your schedule; this cushion is called a contingency reserve, a time reserve, or a time buffer. The whole idea is to accommodate the possibility of schedule risks. One method of calculating the contingency reserve is to take a percentage of the original activity duration estimate as the contingency reserve. It can also be estimated by using quantitative analysis methods. Later, when more information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve can be reduced or eliminated. Usually, while estimating for large projects, managers would like to keep a buffer of 5% or so of the total estimate for the project to account for project schedule risks, like delays in procuring hardware or unexpected human resource risks (Ex: attrition) etc
Expert judgment - Expert judgment can be used to estimate the whole duration of an activity when not enough information is available. It can also be used to estimate some parameters to be used in other methods. For example, what percentage of the original activity duration estimate should be used as a contingency reserve, and in comparing an activity to a similar activity in a previous project during analogous estimation.
Activity duration is the time between the start and finish of a schedule activity. For example, if we consider walking to your nearest McDonalds for a coffee an activity, it depends on how fast we walk. Lets say it is approximately 500 meters from your house, if you walk at a comfortable pace, you will take around 10 mins to reach the place.
So, the duration of the activity of walking to your nearest McDonalds is 10 mins. Once you know this number, you can prioritize or plan accordingly to meet your needs.
Tools and Techniques for Activity Duration Estimating
The project schedule depends upon the activity duration estimates. The duration estimates of activities on the critical path will determine the finish date of a project for a given start date. However, there might be many uncertainties involved in the estimate. For example, two programmers, due to the differences in their experience, will take different amounts of time to write the same program. The good news is that there are a number of tools and techniques that you can use in activity duration estimating.
Analogous estimating - Analogous estimating techniques estimate the duration of an activity based on the duration of a similar activity in a previous project. The accuracy of the estimate depends upon how similar the activities are and whether the team member who will perform the activity has the same level of expertise and experience as the team member from the previous project. This technique is useful when there is not enough detail information about the project.
Parametric estimating - This is a quantitative technique used to calculate the activity duration when the productivity rate of the resource performing the activity is available. You use a formula such as the following one to calculate the duration:
Activity duration = Units of work in the activity / Productivity rate of the resources
For example, if you know that a team assigned to the activity of laying a road for 40 miles can lay two miles of road in one day, the duration calculation can be performed as follows:
Activity duration = 40 miles / (2 miles/day) = 20 days
Three-point estimating - This method addresses the issue of uncertainty in estimating the activity duration. The uncertainty in the duration estimate can be calculated by making a three-point estimate in which each point corresponds to one of the following estimate types:
• Most likely scenario - The activity duration is calculated in most practical terms by factoring in resources likely to be assigned, realistic expectations of the resources, dependencies, and interruptions.
• Optimistic scenario - This is the best-case version of the situation described in the most likely scenario.
• Pessimistic scenario - This is the worst-case version of the situation described in the most likely scenario.
The spread of these three estimates determines the uncertainty. The resultant duration is calculated by taking the average of the three estimates. For example, if the duration for an activity is estimated to be 20 days for the most likely scenario, 15 days for the optimistic scenario, and 25 days for the pessimistic scenario, then the average duration is 20 days, and the uncertainty is ± 5 days, which can be expressed as:
Duration = 20 ± 5 days
It's equivalent to saying that the activity duration is 20 days, give or take five days.
However, the most likely scenario may be given more weight than the other two scenarios. Therefore, the expected duration can be calculated by using the following formula:
ED = ((N*MD) + OD + PD)/(N+2)
Here
ED = Expected Duration
MD = Most likely Duration
OD = Optimistic Duration
PD = Pessimistic Duration
N = Weightage for the Most likely Duration
Reserve analysis - Reserve analysis is used to incorporate a time cushion into your schedule; this cushion is called a contingency reserve, a time reserve, or a time buffer. The whole idea is to accommodate the possibility of schedule risks. One method of calculating the contingency reserve is to take a percentage of the original activity duration estimate as the contingency reserve. It can also be estimated by using quantitative analysis methods. Later, when more information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve can be reduced or eliminated. Usually, while estimating for large projects, managers would like to keep a buffer of 5% or so of the total estimate for the project to account for project schedule risks, like delays in procuring hardware or unexpected human resource risks (Ex: attrition) etc
Expert judgment - Expert judgment can be used to estimate the whole duration of an activity when not enough information is available. It can also be used to estimate some parameters to be used in other methods. For example, what percentage of the original activity duration estimate should be used as a contingency reserve, and in comparing an activity to a similar activity in a previous project during analogous estimation.
Software Estimation Method - Comparison?
estimation is all about .
Size and scope.
Effort.
Time.
Schedule and Cost. for a s/w development process..
Satyajit Kumar Sethy(Wipro Technology)
What is the importance of critical path and critical task estimation?
The importance of the Critical path is that helps you in reducing risk, contingency planning, and project planning.
What are blood hemoglobin estimation methods?
what are the various methods of the Hb estimation???/kindly tell me the senstivity of the methods. i know only one method sahli hemoglobinometer(acid hematin) method. I have enumerated few Sahli - Adam's Method Dare's method Haden's method Wintrobe's method Haldane's method Talliquist met…hod Gasometric method Spectrophotometric method Automated & non-automated hemolglobinometry Other methods alkaline hematin method specific gravity comparator method ( Full Answer )
Which are the Methods for hemoglobin estimation?
Hemoglobin estimation is the measuring of hemoglobin levels thatare broken into three categories. Visual methods are Sahil, Dares,Hadens, Wintrobes, Haldanes, Tallquists method. Second to considerare the gasometric method, single to the Van Slyke method. Lastlythe spectrophotometric method oxyhemogl…o, and the cyanmethemoblobinmethod. ( Full Answer )
How is the Gerber method of fat estimation done?
By adding sulphuric acid to remove it from the proteins, (sped up by addition of amyl alcohol , waterbath at 65 degree and a centrifuge all in a butyometer(spelling?).....
What is the Front-end estimation method?
Front end estimation is a quick method to find an estimate of sums and differences, however it is generally not more accurate than the answer produced by adding or subtracting rounded numbers. Take for example a pair of pants and a shirt that are $24.99 and $16.99, respectively. The correct total o…f these items would be $41.98. Using the method of adding rounded numbers would yield $42 - which is only two cents from the correct total. Front end estimation would yield $40 - which is $1.98 short of the correct total. The use of front end estimation is why stores sell things for $24.99 and $16.99, rather than $25 and $17. It is an open attempt to make the consumer think that they are paying for something at a lower price than they actually are. ( Full Answer )
What is the method used to estimate age after something died?
The dating method used to estimate age after something died is thecarbon dating method. The carbon dating method measures thehalf-life of the carbon in the organism.
Dating method used to estimate age after something dies?
Carbon dating allows for the age estimation. This method works byusing known isotope decay rates to gauge elapsed time.
What is the task of main method in a java program?
The main method of a java class is the starting point of the program execution. The code begins to execute only from the main method. Any java application would have to have a main method that performs all initializations and kick starts the process. .
Ex: .
public class Test { .
public static vo…id main(String[] args){ .
... .
} . ( Full Answer )
Methods of estimating national income?
There are a few. One is the sum of final spending approach. Suppose that Ford sells a car for 10,000 and that's the only car sold in the economy. The GDP (national income) would be 10,000. Another is the sum of incomes approach. Here, income is broadly defined to include wages and profits (i.e. in…come on capital). Finally is the sum of value added approach. Let's say some company sold the parts to build the car in the first example for 2,000. Then the sum of value added looks like this Y = 2000 + (10,000-2000) = 2000 The 2000 came from the income received from Ford to the company that sold the raw material. The 10,000 came from the amount that the car was sold for. You take 10,000-2,000 because that is the net gain from Ford by selling the car. ( Full Answer )
Estimate each sum or difference. identify the method you used. 312 - 287.6?
First you round 312 to 310 and then you round 287.6 to 290, which equals, 20. ;)
What are the method of estimating microbial population in soil?
Serial Dilution Plate Technique is the method to estimate soil microbial population by Dhinga & Sinclair in 1993.
Define estimation and explain its method?
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panes_cheska@yahoo.com.
to form an opinion or judgment about .
to judge or determine generally but carefully (size, value, cost, requirements, etc.); calculate approximately
Geostatistics method of reserve estimation?
That's a big question, because it depends on alot of things. If I were you, I'd try to get into a course. These tend to be expensive and hard to find though. If you forgo the official certification, you can still access a few geostats courses (including worked examples) on Edumine by paying for a mo…nthly access fee (something like $40 CDN). You and I are in the same boat, actually! Good luck! ( Full Answer )
Could the potassium-argon method of radiometric dating be used to date rock that is estimated to be formed 1000 years ago?
A small correction first. Radiometric dating techniques do not date the whole rock. K-Ar dating, for example, dates the last time that the particular mineral you are working with, passed through its crystallization point from a previously hotter condition. Lavas which chill quickly are good for st…udy, whilst some other metamorphoses have a long cooling curve and a less certain date. Commonly, one of the micas is used for this as they contain a reasonable quantity of K. However, the half-life for this dating method is about 1.5x10 9 years. The presence of an 40 Ar decay is signalled by the emission of a positron (inverse beta decay); but in 90% of the decays, 40 Ca is formed, with an electron emission (beta decay). In practice, after only 1000 years, the target decay signal would be difficult to separate from the background noise, for very little 40 Ar would have yet formed. ( Full Answer )
What is the task of the main method in java program?
If you run an java file(as an .class or .jar file) there's always 1 method being called: The main(String[] args) method. The method is only called once. Example of an main method: public static void main(String args[]) throws IOException { LoggingBootstrap. bootstrap (); gui = new GU…I(); } In this case it only bootstraps the logger and uses the constuctor method of GUI(the graphical user interface of the program) ( Full Answer )
What is the task of the main method in a java program?
The main method is simply an entry point to your executable code. When you run a Java program, it looks for a main method as the first section of code to execute, which is why all of your programs start there.
Which are methods for chlorine estimation in water?
Using a indicator known as chlorotex reagent (applicable for free chlorine in a range of 0 - 1 ppm. Idometric titration for higher range of free chlorine
Sampling is a method of estimating population?
Sampling makes it possible to make assumptions about the largerpopulation based on a small sample. This is beneficial in the studyof population and demographics.
What is the protocol for sugar estimation by anthrone method?
i want to tell you actually. but i also dont know the answer. just let it become a mystery....
Significance of estimation of RNA by orcinol method?
One significance of estimation of RNA by orcinol method is the fact that it has made DNA less reactive. The test also is more sensitive with the orcinol method.
Why cost estimation is the most challenging tasks in project management?
I wouldn't consider it the most challenging, but it is challenging. The problem is that there are lots of unknowns when it comes to costs for a project, especially a software project, where changes are always there. The Project Manager has the tough job to balance between the cost estimation and kee…p the project in check of its budget. There are lots of cost estimating techniques out there. ( Full Answer )
What is a method scientists use to estimate the age of living things after they have died?
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Methods for estimating median survival time?
Dear readers, You can use the survival analysis with Kaplan-Meier method to estimate the median lethal time using SAS or SPSS statistical packages. Someone would think to use Probit instead of Survival Analysis, but it is not recommended when you have not independent replicates (ex.: insects). Prob…it exerts that replicates are independent in time. Cheers, Gabriel. ( Full Answer )
Estimation of sugars by DNSA method?
DNSA reagent appears yellow due to ts nitro gp.(chromophore) an alkaline solution of Dnsa is boiled with the reducing sugar to bbe estimated Orange brown coloration result which is read colorimetrically.
A method used to estimate a sum when all addends are close to the same value?
Hm well you can use whole numbers. Now my boy do you get it? Get that brain working!
Method used to estimate the absolute age of a stream is to?
measure the rate at which the stream erodes its bed i think i am not sure
Center line method in estimate?
•Here the total center line length of walls in a building is multiplied to Breadth & Depth of the respective item to get the total quantity..
How is national income estimated by production method?
The production method measures the contributions of the different industrial sectors of the economy to GDP at market price. According to this method the value of goods and services produced by productive enterprises is known as National Income/output. To determine output of various sectors,the econo…my is classify into primary,secondary and tertiary sectors. It should be noted that the total value of goods and services produced in the above sectors is not the national income. While determining national income we must deduct the cost of the inputs. Thus, GNP at Market Price= Value of goods and services produced minus Cost of raw materials and intermediate inputs. Or, GNP at FC=GNP at market price minus indirect taxes minus subsidies. ( Full Answer )
What are the methods used to minimize the average flowtimes of tasks?
Actually, If the problem is only for processing n jobs on only one machine, the solution to minimize the average flow time is easy by using SPT method (short processing time). The method goes by assigning the jobs with short processing times first . But the problem becomes more challenging when th…ere are m machines; in this case Johnson algorithm is used which only guarantees the optimality for two machines only . For more than two machines, integer integer programming modes are used. ( Full Answer )
How would you estimate the cube root of 23 using Newton's method?
first we set x=23 (1/3) now set the equation equal to 0. x 3 =23 x 3 -23=0 now we can set our equation in the formula x n+1 =x n -(x n 3 -23/3x n 2 )
Estimate 8 and one-third times 2 and four-fifths using any method you like Then find the actual product Use your estimate to show that your answer is reasonable?
Let us say that 8 and a third is approximately 8, and 2 and four fifths is approximately 3. This gives us the very simple multiplication of 8 x 3 which equals 24. The actual product of 8 & 1/3 x 2 & 4/5 is 23 and a third. This is very close to my estimated product of 24, therefore it is a reasonable… answer. Pretty good, eh? ( Full Answer )
What tasks can be accomplished using Task Manager?
When using task manager, it can turn off programs that locked up. like enternet explorer, or windows media player.
DNA estimation by DPA method?
in DNA estimation by diphenylamine method, standard calf thymusDNA is digested by perchloric acid, but unkown is not digested byperchloric acid, rather rest protocol of diluting with water andtreating with diphenylamine and checking aborbance reamins same cananybody say the reason?
What is the principle of DNA estimation by DPA method?
when DNA is treated with DPA under acidic conditions, a blue colour complex is formed. this colour complex shows absorption maxima at 595nm. only 2'- deoxyribose of purenes will give this reaction hence the value obtained is half of the total 2'- deoxyribose present.
Why you use 10.75ml of milk for fat estimation in gerber method?
The buyrometer graduation is so calibarated each 1% of graduation in the buty rometer will occupy 0.125ml of fat.(i.e) the weight of the fat in the area is equal to v X D =Mass; 0.125 x 093 = 0.1125. If 1 % represents 0.1125 then 100 % will represent 11.25 g. The average specific gravity of milk is …1.032 so the volume of milk is to be taken to cent percent is 11.25 / 1.032 = 10.9 (i.e.) 11 ml ( Full Answer )
What are tools and methods used to help humans perform tasks?
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All tools help humans (and rarely, animals) to perform tasks. So pick a tool, any tool. Then think about how you use it. That's a method of using it. If the task you need to perform is to safely knock down a wasp's nest, the tool you want may be a rock, and your method of using it is to throw i…t at the wasp's nest. ( Full Answer )
What is one method that ecologists use to estimate the size of a population?
There are many methods worth mentioning including: Sampling: Count a small part and assume even distribution. Differential equations: Can take into account the ammount of food available, predetor populations and disease among other factors. Census: Sit down and count one by one.
What method are used for the estimation of molecular weight of protein?
ofcoz the protein migrate so long as it is charged ,once it become neutral it will stop migrating
What kind of task can the scientific method be applied to?
Try to see if a paper airplane will fly farther with 5 paperclips on the nose as opposed to 0,1,or 3. Question: Will the # of paperclips on the nose of a paper airplane cause the plane to fly farther? Hypothesis: 5 paperclips on the nose of a paper airplane will make he plane fly farther than with… 3,1,or 0 paperclips on the nose. Experiment: Make paper airplanes and fly them with 0 paperclips on the nose. Repeat this test 3 times. Record about how many meters each test flew. Repeat this with 1 paper clip, than 3 paperclips, and finally 5 paperclips. Analyse: Record the average of the 3 tests. write down the steps you took in completing the experiment. Also write down the controlled, dependent, and independent variables of the experiment. Conclusion: 5 paperclips on the nose of the paper airplane will make the plane fly farther than with 0,1,or 3 paperclips on the nose. Compare: Compare the averages, variables, and steps taken along with any other data, to that of other scientists. Remember, a valid experiment can be repeated with duplicated results. ( Full Answer )
How do you do ballpark estimate with partial sum method?
you would just round to the nearest whole number. Example: 123 you would round down to 120 because if the number 123 is lower than 125 u would round it down but if the number is 126 you would round it up to 130.
What is the amount of depreciation using the double declinging method for the second year of use for equipment costing 9000 with an estimated residual value of 600 and as estimated life of three year?
Depreciation for 1st year = 6000 Depreciation for 2nd year = 2000 .
Depreciation for 3rd year = 400
What are the methods in estimation?
There are a few methods in estimation. Like framework, unknown parameters, empirical dist and substitution principle most of these methods can be used using substitution principles.
What is the principle of hemoglobin estimation using cyanmethemoglobin method?
In this method, the ferrous form of Hb is converted to ferric form in presence of potassium ferricyanide, converted to met-haemoglobin which is then converted to cyanmethemoglobin in presence of potassium cyanide.
What are some books or websites to read to do a research task on the methods Emperor Augustus used to expand and control the Roman Empire?
To learn all about Augustus go to the ancient writers. Seutonius, in his Twelve Caesars gives the ancient bio of Augustus. Dio and Appain also cover him. Ronald Syme's The Roman Revolution is excellent as is also Augustus: the Golden Age of Rome by G.P. Baker. Check you local library, as they more t…han likely will have bios of him with different author's viewpoints. Be careful of what you get from the web as many web sights are opinion pieces and reflect the writer's point of view which can be misleading, as they are not always truthful due to faulty research. By the way, Augustus did not really expand the empire except for Egypt. He concentrated on consolidating more than expanding and after Teutoburg, actually pulled back the border to the Rhine. ( Full Answer )
What was the method that aryabhatta used to estimate the pi value?
pi=3.141... C divided by D. Circumference of a circle divided by the diameter of a circle.
How do you use shadow method to estimate height or distance?
Measure height and shadow af a smaller object --- call these h1 and s1 measure the shadow of something larger like a tree. call this s2 its height is the unknown call it h2 use a proportion to solve the problem h1/s1 = h2/s2 substitute in the measured amounts, rearrange the equation (proportion) …and find the answer. ( Full Answer )
What is a good method to estimate area in geometry?
The answer depends on the nature of the shape whose area you wish to estimate. Some complex shapes can be decomposed into smaller shapes whose areas can be determined using standard formulae. It is then simply a question of adding the parts together. For more complicated shapes, there are essentia…lly two options: you can either use uniform laminae and mass or estimate the area using grids. ( Full Answer )
What is a dating method used to estimate Ages after something dies?
For things that were once living the best method is what is called Carbon Dating , which is based on the decay of carbon-14. Aslong as the thing remains alive it is in equilibrium with theenvironment and maintains a constant level of carbon-14 in itstissues. On death this equilibrium is broken and t…he remainingcarbon-14 slowly decays away without anymore replacing it from theenvironment. The age can be calculated by measuring how muchcarbon-14 has been lost from the equilibrium level. The problems with Carbon Dating is that it does not work for thingsthat died more than 40,000 years ago due to the fact that thehalflife of carbon-14 is 5570 years so after 40,000 years thereisn't enough left to measure, and the environmental level ofcarbon-14 does change some over time so known reference sources(e.g. tree rings) must be used for recalibration of Carbon Datingresults. Beyond 40,000 years other radiometric dating methods must be used,but unlike Carbon Dating they cannot determine age from death. ( Full Answer )
Could the potassium argon method of radiometric dating be used to date rocks that are estimated to have formed 1000 years ago?
No. Potassium decays to argon, and geologists measure argon as thedaughter material. The half life is too long for 1000 years to givesensible results.