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When do backwardation and contango trends occur in commodity markets?
Wiki User
∙ 15y ago
Backwardation trends are often occurring under expectations for oversupplied markets where buyers dictate conditions. Backwardation trends are common for non-perishable commodities perceived as abundant, inexpensive, and expensive to store. Crude Oil and Natural Gas were in the past frequently viewed as such. Contango trends are often occurring under expectations for undersupplied markets where sellers dictate conditions. Contango trends are common for scarce, expensive (forgone alternative interest is a huge factor), non-perishable and expensive to store commodities like Gold.
Wiki User
∙ 15y ago
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What is backwardation in commodity markets?
In short, whether we have Backwardation or Contango depends on how the expected future spot prices are quantified and how the related commodity strips behave. Contango and Backwardation in Common Usage Investment professionals on financial TV channels and in newspapers colloquially refer to upward trends in futures prices as contango and downward trends in futures prices as backwardation. Contango and Backwardation in Economic TheoryIn economic theory regarding Backwardation and Contango, associated with John Maynard Keyns and John Hicks, for Contango to exist, expected spot prices (someday in the future) have to be lower than current futures prices for the same future moments, and reverse has to apply for Backwardation. Thus whether we have a contango or bacwardation depends on an arbitrary forward estimate of spot prices. For example, if we estimate that today's spot price, price at which a physical commodity is trading today, is an expected spot price someday in the future, and we see an upward trend in a commodity strip (series of future contracts prices), we see a contango. On the other hand, if the futures prices in a commodity strip trending upwards are considered unbiased estimates of the expected future spot prices, meaning they are equal, there is no Contango or Backwardation to speak of. By the way, upward trend of estimates may be a result of storage expenses.
What is contango in commodity markets?
In short, whether we have Backwardation or Contango depends on how the expected future spot prices are quantified and how the related commodity strips behave. Contango and Backwardation in Common Usage Investment professionals on financial TV channels and in newspapers colloquially refer to upward trends in futures prices as contango and downward trends in futures prices as backwardation. Contango and Backwardation in Economic TheoryIn economic theory regarding Backwardation and Contango, associated with John Maynard Keyns and John Hicks, for Contango to exist, expected spot prices (someday in the future) have to be lower than current futures prices for the same future moments, and reverse has to apply for Backwardation. Thus whether we have a contango or bacwardation depends on an arbitrary forward estimate of spot prices. For example, if we estimate that today's spot price, price at which a physical commodity is trading today, is an expected spot price someday in the future, and we see an upward trend in a commodity strip (series of future contracts prices), we see a contango. On the other hand, if the futures prices in a commodity strip trending upwards are considered unbiased estimates of the expected future spot prices, meaning they are equal, there is no Contango or Backwardation to speak of. By the way, upward trend of estimates may be a result of storage expenses.
Is the meaning of backwardation and contango used in finance textbooks the same as the colloquial meaning used by Wall Street?
In short, whether we have Backwardation or Contango depends on how the expected forward spot prices are quantified and how the related commodity strips behave. Contango and Backwardation in Common Usage Investment professionals on financial TV channels and in newspapers colloquially refer to upward trends in futures prices as contango and downwards trends in futures prices as backwardation. Contango and Backwardation in Economic TheoryIn economic theory regarding Backwardation and Contango, associated with John Maynard Keyns and John Hicks, for Contango to exist, expected spot prices (someday in the future) have to be lower than current futures prices for the same future moments, and reverse has to apply for Backwardation. Thus whether we have a contango or bacwardation depends on an arbitrary forward estimate of spot prices. For example, if we estimate that today's spot price, price at which a physical commodity is trading today, is an expected spot price someday in the future, and we see an upward trend in a commodity strip (series of future contracts prices), we see a contango. On the other hand, if the futures prices in a commodity strip trending upwards are considered unbiased estimates of the expected future spot prices, meaning they are equal, there is no Contango or Backwardation to speak of. By the way, upward trend of estimates may be a result of storage expenses.
Where to view daily commodity trends any idea?
There are lots of sites are providing the daily commodity trends. But I will recommend to you use this site (commoditytips.com). Here You can get live updated commodity trends & helpful tips. Best Regards, Gurleen Singh
What is the name for a person who studies trends in the markets?
economist
What Fundamental analysis of a company's stock focuses?
The company's traits such as revenues and earnings per share Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets
What Fundamental analysis of a company's stock focuses on?
The company's traits such as revenues and earnings per share Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets
Fundamental analysis of a company's stock focuses on what?
The company's traits such as revenues and earnings per share Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets
What does technical analysis of a company's stock focus on?
Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets.
Technical analysis of a company's stock focuses on what?
Overall trends in the market such as bull and bear markets
When studying individual markets or consumers?
When you study individual markets or consumers, this is known as thermodynamics. This evaluates the market scope and trends and is useful for making critical decision for the business.
When you study individual markets or consumers?
When you study individual markets or consumers, this is known as thermodynamics. This evaluates the market scope and trends and is useful for making critical decision for the business.
