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If ALL smokers developed cancer and ONLY smokers developed cancer and the medical profession knew HOW cancer developed, they may be in a position to hazard an educated GUESS. (Note that ALL plants contain the same "ingredients", or their equivalents, as tobacco.)

What is known is that cancer is a multi-factorial condition, i.e. there is not a single "cause" but there are a number of contributing factors, some known, some suspected and some completely unknown.

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