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We have to assume it was his own model since he put so much time into it. He was right because after many subsequent discoveries we still use Kepler's model today.

Earlier theories explained the movements of the planets fairly accurately, but Kepler was able to use the latest accurate measurements of the planets' positions done by Tycho Brahe, and was able to get a better fit to the measured data.

Other than accuracy there was no way of knowing which theory was 'right' until many years later when the elliptical orbits in Kepler's theory were found to be consistent with the law of gravity and the laws of motion.

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