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A tornado is a microscale weather pattern, meaning that in weather terms its is very small and fairly short lived, and so it can be influenced by small-scale and short lived factors. These factors interact in complex ways. What causes a tornado or its parent thunderstorm to go through one place and not another is influenced by differences in temperature, humidity and wind too subtle to even detect on the long term, especially considering that we cannot take measurements at every single location. It is only when the direct precursors to the tornado, which typically gather together in a matter of minutes, can we say that a specific location is at risk.

That said, a less definite sort of prediction can be made on more long term. Many tornadoes, especially the strong ones, tend to occur in outbreaks. In these circumstances large-scale weather patterns have to have a favorable setup for tornadoes across a region. Such large scale patterns are easier to work with. With this we can often tell that a tornado outbreak is likely across a region three days in advance, sometimes more. However, such forecasts cover broad areas such as a state or two and cannot predict if any specific location will be hit, or exactly how strong the tornadoes will be.

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