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There is no formula. Appreciation cannot be predicted with certainty. In some markets there is no appreciation as there is an excess of property compared to the demand. Most people have no interest in buying desert land and it effectively has no value. Even in a city center demand can fall when there is a shift in jobs or other reasons that cause the population to decline. Look at some cities in the Rust Belt in the US. Cities where people no longer want to live. Then look at parts of south and west were snowbirds and others keep moving.

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