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It is used metaphorically. Presumably, if an animal has just past, its trail is still warm, and signs like foot prints, or scent, or pieces of fur will still be there to indicate where the animal went. It will be possible to track the animal.

A long time later, when the trail is "cold", the traces of the animal will have disappeared, and you will not be able to track it.

When trail of a crime "goes cold", time has past and useful evidence has disappeared. Some of the evidence that has disappeared might be witnesses' memories of what happened and what they saw, but the reference is to all the things that make it more difficult to solve a crime after time has gone by.

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