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A true demographic transition is characterized by a consistent and sustained decline in birth and death rates over time, typically linked to shifts in social, economic, and health factors, such as improved healthcare, education, and female empowerment. In contrast, mere random fluctuations in birth and death rates may occur due to short-term events like natural disasters, pandemics, or economic crises without a lasting impact on population trends. To recognize a true demographic transition, look for long-term patterns and changes in population structure rather than temporary spikes or dips. Additionally, demographic data should reflect a gradual shift from high fertility and mortality rates to low rates, often correlating with increased urbanization and industrialization.

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