Will Swine Flu become an epidemic?

Answer 1

Hopefully not and probably not.

Although not 100% of the scientists are in agreement, the back plague (or black death) has long been thought to have been the same as the Bubonic Plague which was bacterial, not viral like the swine flu (H1N1 virus). However, the pandemic potential is similar for both types of Infectious Diseases. There is the potential for a very serious and deadly viral or influenza pandemic that could equal the proportion of fatalities from the 1348 "Black Death".

However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced on 5/4/09 that the preliminary evaluations of the death rates from confirmed cases of the 2009 Swine Flu epidemic indicate that it is not as deadly as first believed. But, as President Obama said, "We are not out of the woods yet." We should not let our guards down prematurely.

Because of historical pandemic experiences, we know that the current precautions should not be abandoned. We learned from the records of the 1918 Spanish Flu, which had a very high mortality rate, that the first wave of an epidemic may be a milder form of the virus than future waves. The Spanish Flu's most deadly phase was a second wave that struck in the fall following the first wave. Most flu epidemics do progress in waves of outbreaks, and the Swine Flu is expected to behave similarly. The second waves sometimes are milder than the first ones, but, as shown in the 1918 pandemic, that doesn't hold true in all historical examples.

As we continue to observe the precautions, monitor the outbreaks, and stay keenly aware of our individual responsibilities in controlling the spread, we can make a difference. The diligence of the public in using the information that has been provided to prevent and protect, should be a mitigating factor with the Swine Flu.

Additionally, there is anticipation that with continued focused work on developing a vaccine for the 2009 Swine Flu, there will be some prepared to use in the coming fall flu vaccination season, which would be good timing to prevent a lethal second wave.

One of the most encouraging developments for all future flu and viral infections, is a "cure" currently in animal trials. It, unlike current anti-viral medications, approaches the attack on the virus in a new way that can not only disable the specific strain of virus, but also prevent it from future mutations (the mutations can enable resistance to the treatment). Current anti-viral medications affect the chemical "keys" on the viruses' coats to prevent them from attaching to the host cells. The problem with that approach is that the virus can continue to mutate and change its protein coating to render the anti-viral medications ineffective. Instead of at the protein coating, the new approach attacks the virus at the stem, which is unable to mutate to a resistant version. The new drug is expected to work on the most deadly of current viral strains.**

The manufacturer of the new anti-viral treatment has announced that they hope to have the human trials completed and the medication in production in time for the next flu season, if all goes well in the current animal trials.

Continue to follow all advice of the CDC and World Health Organization (WHO) for preventing the spread of the 2009 Swine Flu virus. Stay aware of the updates and announcements from those organizations and the government entities.

**Unfortunately, at least the first product being developed is not expected to be effective against the rhino-virus (common cold). While it is anticipated by the manufacturer to be effective against our most deadly types of viruses, it is not being targeted to treat the rhino-viruses. We may continue to suffer future sniffles, for a while longer, but this can also be an advantage in keeping our immune systems "tuned" through battle with the more minor viral strains anyway. It seems we may be a few steps closer than ever to the cure for the common cold, though.

For information about how to prevent the spread of viral microbes, including the Swine flu, see the related questions and links below.

Answer 2

The Novel Influenza A, H1N1 virus (Swine Flu) is already in the epidemic phase in various locations around the world.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has not labeled it a "pandemic" yet. Although the Pandemic Phase Alert Level from the WHO is still at the level indicating that a pandemic may be imminent. (See related question section below for more information)

A pandemic (and an epidemic) is not defined by mortality rates, but morbidity rates instead. The spread of the infectious disease is continuing and has moved into new countries and regions of the world. If and when the definition of pandemic is met, it is expected that WHO will update the Phase to the Pandemic phase in their alert procedures.

The mortality rate (Death Rate) from the Swine Flu is, thankfully, lower than originally feared, but there is still the potential of a more virulent second wave of the virus outbreaks with higher mortality rates. This was the course that the ultimately very deadly 1918 Spanish Flu took, which also had a very mild first wave. The WHO is recommending that our prevention techniques are continued, which will also protect us from the typical seasonal flu, in which the number of deaths in the US in a season can be 36,000 people.