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There are two groups of "target consumers" in the commodities market.

The first is the companies that use those commodities, and certainly the list of companies changes depending on the commodity in question. Companies that use sugar and wheat probably don't use lead. Or, at least, you'd hope they don't.

The other group are investors who attempt to profit by purchasing commodities futures then selling them to users before the settlement date. This is a good way to lose your shirt, because there is no guarantee you're going to make money.

Let's throw out a real quick example: You are a baker and are buying wheat futures, as all large bakeries do. You use 10,000 bushels of wheat per month, so once a year you buy 24 wheat futures contracts--a wheat futures contract is for 5,000 bushels of wheat, so you buy two contracts per month. Your March 2012 contracts closed today at 767.0--$7.67 per bushel. Now you know that wheat will show up at your milling plant in March 2012 and it's going to cost $7.67 per bushel. Now, most of the risk has been taken out of the equation. (You will also buy futures for the other ingredients in your products.)

I am a speculator. I decide to buy a wheat futures contract. This is a bet that needs two conditions to come true to make money: that the "spot price" of wheat--what you'll pay if you just call ADM or someone and order a truckload of wheat--is higher than the settlement price on the futures contract, and that when this contract nears settlement date, a user will need the wheat. (Note: the amount of wheat you get with one futures contract shows up in either seven trucks or two rail cars.) If I'm right I make quite a bit of money. If I'm wrong--and commodities speculators usually are--it's going to cost me a fortune.

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∙ 15y ago

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