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Chances are 1 in 8192 every time you encounter a Pokemon in the wild or breed...unless the Pokemon you're breeding were obtained in games from different countries (such as a Japanese Diamond Ditto and a French HeartGold Charmander). With Pokemon from 2 different countries, you have a 1 in 2048 chance.

Even then it could still be Egg #1 or Egg #1,000,000,000,001 before you meet a Shiny Pokemon from an Egg.

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