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There is a school of thought, supported by the IMF, that the rest of the world can pull the world economic engine despite the likely slowdown in the US. Current economic data from Europe and Asia support this view. The Fed presented an optimistic outlook for the US economy as recently as August 7 but has now changed its prediction. The housing market slowdown has escalated into a liquidity crisis of global proportion. I believe that the US economic growth during the rest of 2007 will be lower and led by weakness in consumer spending. Going forward, a consumption-led slowdown in the US economy should have an impact on its trading partners. The Indian economy has grown at more than 9 per cent in 2005-2006 and projections indicate robust performance in the coming years. India's exports may record a decline if the US slows down. In 2006, roughly 18 per cent of India's exports - about 15 per cent of India's GDP - was directed to the US. The negative impact can be partly offset by exports of services. As the US slows down, an effort to reduce costs could boost outsourcing of services. The IT sector has made and will make impressive strides. Possible setbacks from weakness in capital spending in the US may be insignificant. On the financial side, equity markets have posted losses and are likely to move in tandem with events in the US. The Sensex for instance posted declines in 2001 when the US was in a recession. Institutions in India holding US mortgage-related securities are likely to suffer losses. On the credit side, the Indian corporate sector raised about $15 billion from external sources in the first five months of 2007. At the extreme, Indian corporations could face higher costs of borrowing through this channel due to increasing credit market spreads. Firms would have to tap into the domestic credit market as an alternative, thereby exerting upward pressure on domestic borrowing costs. This could whittle down the economic growth rate. These are the possible channels through which the US crisis could affect the Indian economy. Precise estimates of these repercussions would need a more thorough analysis, which is premature given the short life of the crisis. In sum, the spill-over effects of the US financial crisis to the Indian economy may not be significant enough to overwhelm the positive economic momentum already in place.
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