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Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas; that is it is a gas that allows short wavelengths from the sun to pass through to the Earth's surface, but blocks some of the longer wave radiation going from Earth to space. The law of conservation of energy says that by blocking this outgoing radiation, the Earth must be warmer than it would otherwise be. In fact, if the Earth had no CO2, its temperature would be below freezing. Water vapor would not help, because it would be frozen solid.

Other factors other than CO2 affect the Earth's temperature. Solar activity has an effect, but it has not shown a trend over the past thirty years which could explain the warming.

1998 was a very warm year because of an el Niño which was far stronger than any subsequent el Niño. The reason why the records set in 1998 have yet to be decisively beaten is because the CO2 added since then has barely matched the effects of the 1998 el Niño. Do not be deceived when people say that it is not warmer than last year and therefore, global warming is not happening. It is the same natural cycles which denialists love to point out has always happened. Global warming is happening. And we are causing it.

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