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It refers to statistics, and how raw data does not always provide actionable intelligence. The bed of a stream or river is often concave and not perfectly flat. at it's edges it is quite shallow, however rather deep in it's center. At it's center it may be several feet deep but only providing an average of six inches. The lack of additional details result in mistakes. For example, U.S. paratrooper in WW II that parachuted on swamps instead of prairies.

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Then there is the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches?

The phrase highlights the irony of underestimating risk; despite the stream's shallow average depth, the man drowned, suggesting that averages can be misleading. It emphasizes the importance of considering variations and extremes rather than solely relying on general statistics. This serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of complacency and the need for careful assessment in seemingly safe situations.


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