The demographic transition model was first developed in the early 20th century by demographer Warren Thompson in the United States. It was further refined and popularized by Frank W. Notestein in the mid-20th century.
Demographic transition model. The demographic transition model is a model used to explain the process of shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson of prior observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years. The model has five stages which go from the worst situation to what's thought of as being a good one. The demographic transition model works by using the data and putting it into graph format which out lines the problems and situations the world faces and it being in graph format it is put into easily understandable format. Each country involved in the model is categorised into the five stages. As the country's grow in economic and industrial strength they go higher up the stages. For example there is stage on where the children work and do jobs such as sweeping and cleaning and washing dishes to where in stage five there are quaternary jobs. The pattern is that LEDC's are at the lower stages but the MEDC's are at the latter stages of the model. I personally believe that it isn't to affective as all it does is separate the country's and divides them up into different stages. So instead of actually altering the problem or trying to fix it, it just hides the problems that occur in the LEDC's. I don't think that it isn't that affective any where but I do believe that it works as a sort of eye opener for the stage 1 and stage 2 country's that because they are ranked lower then the higher stages, making them want to be at the same level as the higher staged country's. This then pressures the Country's economy and government to try and get to the higher ranks but without the strength of the economy it is impossible to reach such stages. I believe the model is most affective at the lower stages as though it puts pressure it also helps to reach the higher stages and other country's that are higher up in the stages obviously had to work to get to where they are situated in the model, this pressure helps as it almost forces the country's to develop economically but also industrially also. To conclude though the demographic transition model is affective at the lower stages, at the top it isn't really doing anything other than outlining the lower stage country's current position but also showing how much better they are which just belittles the LEDC's and does nothing to help.
The demographic transition theory provides a framework for understanding the relationship between population growth and economic development. It helps explain how changes in birth and death rates affect population trends and can be used to inform government policies on population control and resource allocation. Additionally, the theory highlights the role of social and economic factors in shaping population dynamics over time.
Demographic parameters are characteristics used to describe a population, such as age, gender, income, education level, and occupation. These parameters are used to segment populations for research or marketing purposes.
The Demographic Transition Model' Does the DTM still provide a 21st century framework for looking at demographical change in countries which are experiencing development? To what extent is the tool really useful or should we make it obsolete?The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two centuries.Figure 1The term "model" means that it is an idealized, composite picture of population change in these countries. The model is a generalization that applies to these countries as a group but may not accurately describe all individual cases. Whether or not it applies, or should be applied to less developed societies today remains to be disputed.The DTM ( demographic Transition model ) (F.1) was first observed in the two centuries preceding 1950 in what are today's developed countries. Prior to the transition, these developed countries experienced high death rates matched by high birth rates, resulting in a relatively stable population size over time. But then improving living standards and public health measures caused death rates to drop, followed by a gradual drop in birth rates, which by the 1970s once again matched death rates. Between the onset-of-mortality decline and the drop in birth rates, population surged in developed countries, actually quadrupling. But the original 4 stages are over, and most developed countries are now projected to experience population shrinkage in the future (stage 5 see f.1). This historical evidence has proved so far that countries that have experienced industrial change have gone through the stages of the transition model; these countries are mainly in Europe and North America.Figure 2After observing these changes in countries like Britain and Germany Demographers predicted that today's NIC's (newly industrialised countries) would undergo a similar transition. Indeed, in the period following World War II, mortality decline accelerated in these countries. As the demographic transition model would predict, that led to a surge in population growth (See F.2) Also as expected, the death rate decline was later followed by a compensatory drop in birth rates. However instead of taking two centuries for the process to complete itself as it did in the developed countries, it will happen in less than one century.There are many weaknesses of the DTM being used as a tool for predictions in demographic change. The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four/ five stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialised.The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control, this is evident in countries like Brazil, whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced 'one child' policy (F3).The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialised countries, therefore making the time scale, and consequently the utility of the DTM obsolete.Figure 3Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, and Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model which would also add to the idea that the DTM cannot be used as a general tool for all countries.Still another factor can skew the numbers in a demographic transition or render it meaningless, which is lethal disease. In some countries today, AIDS rages out of control, with more than 40 million people afflicted globally. In 2001 alone, an additional five million people were diagnosed with AIDS. In future other factors may enter the picture such as groundwater depletion and global water shortage. In Bangladesh today, due to arsenic poisoning of the ground water in thousands of rural tube wells, millions of villagers are falling sick and dying as this silent killer reaches epidemic proportions.In conclusion, the only way demographers could use the DTM would be in population projections or as a descriptive model. Population projections represent simply the playing out into the future of a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality, and migration rates. It cannot be stated too strongly that such projections are not predictions, though they are misinterpreted as such frequently. A projection is a "what-if" exercise based on explicit assumptions that may or may not themselves be correct. If the assumptions represent believable future trends, then the projection's outputs may be plausible and useful. If the assumptions are unbelievable, then so is the projection.As the course of demographic trends is hard to anticipate very far into the future, demographers should calculate a set of alternative projections that, taken together, are expected to define a range of plausible futures, rather than to predict or forecast any single future from the model. Because demographic trends sometimes change in unexpected ways, it is important that all demographic projections be updated on a regular basis to incorporate new trends and newly developed data, and therefore should not rely on one model.
The three demographic variables commonly used are age, gender, and income. These variables help categorize and identify characteristics of a population for research and marketing purposes.
The demographic transition model describes the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops economically. This model helps explain how a country's population growth is influenced by factors such as industrialization, healthcare improvements, and education levels. By understanding which stage of the demographic transition model a country is in, policymakers can anticipate future population trends and plan accordingly.
Demographic transition refers to a shift in death rates followed by a shift in birthrates, and its associated population boom;Most developing nations are going through a demographic transition today.Demographic transition refers to a shift in death rates followed by a shift in birthrates, and its associated population boom. Most developing nations are going through a demographic transition today.
Demographic transition model. The demographic transition model is a model used to explain the process of shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy. It is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson of prior observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years. The model has five stages which go from the worst situation to what's thought of as being a good one. The demographic transition model works by using the data and putting it into graph format which out lines the problems and situations the world faces and it being in graph format it is put into easily understandable format. Each country involved in the model is categorised into the five stages. As the country's grow in economic and industrial strength they go higher up the stages. For example there is stage on where the children work and do jobs such as sweeping and cleaning and washing dishes to where in stage five there are quaternary jobs. The pattern is that LEDC's are at the lower stages but the MEDC's are at the latter stages of the model. I personally believe that it isn't to affective as all it does is separate the country's and divides them up into different stages. So instead of actually altering the problem or trying to fix it, it just hides the problems that occur in the LEDC's. I don't think that it isn't that affective any where but I do believe that it works as a sort of eye opener for the stage 1 and stage 2 country's that because they are ranked lower then the higher stages, making them want to be at the same level as the higher staged country's. This then pressures the Country's economy and government to try and get to the higher ranks but without the strength of the economy it is impossible to reach such stages. I believe the model is most affective at the lower stages as though it puts pressure it also helps to reach the higher stages and other country's that are higher up in the stages obviously had to work to get to where they are situated in the model, this pressure helps as it almost forces the country's to develop economically but also industrially also. To conclude though the demographic transition model is affective at the lower stages, at the top it isn't really doing anything other than outlining the lower stage country's current position but also showing how much better they are which just belittles the LEDC's and does nothing to help.
The variable "hn" is typically used to represent the new state in a Hidden Markov Model. This state depends on the previous state and the transition probabilities. The new state "hn" is calculated based on a combination of the previous state and the transition probabilities in the model.
When was the first DNA
1971
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1971
by Love
The demographic transition theory provides a framework for understanding the relationship between population growth and economic development. It helps explain how changes in birth and death rates affect population trends and can be used to inform government policies on population control and resource allocation. Additionally, the theory highlights the role of social and economic factors in shaping population dynamics over time.
Neo-Malthusians criticize the demographic transition model for assuming a linear and simplistic relationship between population growth and socio-economic development, which they argue may not hold universally. They believe the model underestimates the potential impact of population growth on resource depletion and environmental degradation. Additionally, they suggest that the demographic transition model does not adequately consider the unequal distribution of resources and power that can exacerbate issues related to overpopulation.
Chrome plating was first used on Model Ts in the 1920s.