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The basic way that meteorology works is that meteorologists look to see what the current conditions are right now and how they're trending, then they look into past records to see what happened the last time the barometer was at 29.78 and falling and the temperature was at 40 degrees Fahrenheit and falling and the winds were from the northeast at 12 miles per hour and and and and and.

If they find five such cases, and four out of the five times there was a blizzard next day, they say there's an 80% chance of a blizzard tomorrow, because 80% (4/5) of the times before the weather had been just like it is now, there was a blizzard, and 20% (1/5) of the times there wasn't.

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Baby DuBuque

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2y ago

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