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== == Here are various elements that I think a useful prediction would have: It must be theoretically possible to disprove the prediction through objective, observable, independent events. (Good luck with: "I predict that it will be a colder than normal winter, because Yog Sothoth will close the Gate at the moment of the Winter Solstice!") The prediction should concern something of general interest and not something nonsensical. (No one will be interested in your prediction that there will be a noontime for the next seven days in a row!) The prediction should be based on a hypothesis about how some system or process works. Independent events (events that you are not manipulating in any way) should verify your prediction at a rate well beyond chance. Of course, not all predictions will do this, but the ones that do will usually point to other interesting questions that will end up shedding light on the hypothesis. The prediction should be repeatable and verifiable by independent researchers (it should not be a one-time prediction).

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16y ago
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7y ago

It is a statement about what you think may happen in the future, a forecast or prophecy

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Q: What is the definition of a useful prediction?
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