Why is the weather unpredictable?

Answer 1

The short answer:

1. We lack the ability to continuously observe the atmosphere and assimilate these data.
2. Our ability to analyze these data are severely limited by inadequate computing speed and storage.
3. We lack a complete understanding of the physical processes operating in the atmosphere and elsewhere which contribute to what we know as our weather.

More technically...There are somewhere around 5 billion cubic kilometers of air in the Troposphere, and to predict the weather accurately we need to know exactly what's going on in every space at every second. Parts of the stratosphere are important, as are the nuances in intensity and type of radiation from the sun. The condition of the surface of Earth is extremely important, particularly in terms of soil moisture, vegetation, and especially water temperatures going down quite a bit in depth.

Obviously, it's impossible to constantly know the exact conditions of all of this. Because we do not, we are already starting with error in our forecast. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, these errors rapidly accumulate as we go out in time. These processes are stochastic, that is, the next iteration depends upon the previous condition, so alter that condition and you quickly unravel out of control.

Furthermore, we rely on sophisticated computer models as tools to help predict weather, inputting all the observations that we do have and running these through a parameterized (simplified) physical model of the way the atmosphere works. These models are governed by everything we know in fluid dynamics and mechanics, radiative transfer, etc., to output a specific scenario for the state of the atmosphere at a given time. Obviously, we are constrained by our computing power in our ability to represent the system realistically. For example, the grid on which these are run (which means there is one value for temperature, pressure etc. in each cell) can be quite coarse, and not resolve local differences in nature.

Finally, our understanding of certain processes occurring in the atmosphere and interactions among the systems is inadequate. If we do not completely understand why things occur, we cannot model and predict them accurately.

It's a wonder that we can predict the weather at all!

Answer 2

There are many factors that contribute to weather being unpredictable. Most factors are naturally caused, though some are human caused as well. The unpredictable global warming changes have an effect on how weather is unpredictable. The way and times the sun's rays hit the Earth. The ways the greenhouse gases and humans react together. All these factors, together and separately is why weather is still unpredictable.

Answer 3

because you haft to look on radar and use weather tools for the radar carefully to diagnosed the storm