Not guarantee, but it is rather helpful. It is not too likely
that two population split by a solid geographic barrier would not
begin to speciate. To not speciate they would have to not have any
beneficial mutations over time that would carry their gene pools
apart. Then there is the possibility of founder effect by having
the frequency of alleles vary between the two populations in a
random manner. So, not guarantees, but even modern ring species
vary greatly enough that at the ends of the ring they are different
species. ( Google ring species )