Are the results of the 2009 election between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi in Iran legitimate?

Answer 1

There have been several statistical analyses which have lent moderate support for questionable practices. While political models are inherently rough estimates, the results of the election tended to run counter to what common models would predict. However, such models have never been terribly effective at determining Iranian political whims.

Mousavi got 13,216,411(33%) and Ahmadinejad got 24,527,516 (62%) so Ahmadinejad was therefore announced as official winner.

Additionally, high turnout in elections tends to favor opposition candidates. It is rare for high turnout to favor the incumbent, yet Ahmadinejad must have won a heavy portion of the additional votes as compared to the 2005 election or supporters of the opposition must have defected in droves to the conservative side (a somewhat outlandish proposition).

Furthermore, Ahmadinejad's performance in areas where he was not favored to win are questionable. For example, Ahmadinejad won a majority in Mousavi's home district. While this is not entirely unheard of, politics in Iran tend to follow ethnic boundaries, and Mousavi's popularity in the region was thought to be high.

There are also allegations of arbitrary vote alteration. The total vote count of the minor candidate Mohsen Rezaee dropped over the course of several hours as reported by PressTV, Iran's state-run, English language news station. There are also reportedly 14 million missing unused ballots out of a total of 43 million votes, throwing further doubt on the legitimacy of the results. More disconcertingly, there may have been some districts where turnout was higher than 100% of eligible voters.

Despite this, Ahmadinejad had won just 1% less of the vote in 2005 as he did in 2009, and the results of the 2005 election have never been called into question.