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It's all about the numbers of host individuals because it's too hard to count the parasites.

1. The SIR model


a. β is the transmission rate

b. l is the length of time a host is susceptible

c. α is the mortality rate caused by the infection

d. b is the natural mortality rate

e. If we plot the number of new infections over time, we get:

R0 (the number of new infected hosts per parasite) can be calculated as

R0= Bs/a+b+v

Rearrange to solve for the value of S when R0 = 1:

Nt= a+b+v/ B

(1)An infection cannot establish successfully unless S>NT

(2) Natural selection drives the parasite to reduce α and/or increase β

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