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They do a lot of unscientific polling. Often the questions are slanted to try to produce the results they want or to presuade the answerer to a particular point of view. They are fond of two part questions to be answered yes or no. There is no way to say that you agree with one part and disagree with the other. They also do some serious polling to see which candidate would do better.
The role of polling in elections is to gather data on public opinion and voter preferences. Polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment and can help political campaigns strategize and make informed decisions. They are also used by media outlets to gauge the popularity of candidates and to make predictions about election outcomes.
Surveys are the most widely used method for formally measuring public opinion. They involve asking a representative sample of the population a series of questions to gauge their attitudes, beliefs, or preferences on a particular topic. Results from surveys can provide valuable insights into public opinion on various issues.
Publicizing polling results
Before George Gallup, polling samples were often small and not scientifically selected, leading to biased or unreliable results. Gallup revolutionized polling by using rigorous sampling methods to ensure accurate representation of the population, making his polls more trustworthy and influential.
Who certifies the results of any poll? Generally it is the polling agency itself, through conducting spot checks on accuracy. No government agency oversees poll results, so there is nothing to make them "official," with the exception of election polls. Election polls are are not scientific polls, as they are not random samples of public opinion. Instead, everyone eligible to vote casts a ballot. Election polls are the only "official" polls.
If the personal opinion of a scientist affects the way that the experimental results are reported, that is called bias.
ProsGreat ways to get empirical feedback from voters instead of anecdotal informationCan help candidates understand what issues are important to votersConsLegislator are sometimes afraid to lead and instead live by polling resultsLegislators are sometimes afraid to vote for what is best because the polling results are bad.
It means that if the poll was taken over and over again, the results would match the population 95% of the time.
Parts per million (ppm)
Election results may not accurately reflect public opinion because voter turnout varies, some people may not vote due to apathy or other reasons. Also, the design of electoral systems can influence outcomes, like gerrymandering. Additionally, people may vote based on party loyalty or specific issues, rather than their overall views.
The five main steps in a scientific poll are:Defining the universeConstructing a samplePreparing valid questionsInterviewingAnalyze and report findings