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In its simplest terms, the meteorologist looks at the weather as it is now in those places from which the weather systems come that affect his location. With knowledge of how the systems interact and what is going on now, the meteorologist can estimate where the weather systems will go in the near future.

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14y ago
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12y ago

Technically, they don't KNOW a storm will happen UNTIL it does. What they do is look at current weather conditions and compare them to recorded history. If the weather conditions have been more or less the same as today 50 times in the past 50 years, and 40 of those times there has been a thunderstorm the next day, they say "there's an 80% chance of a thunderstorm."

It's a little more complicated than that makes it sound, but this is essentially where the percentages come from.

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Q: How early do meteorologists know a storm will happen before it actually does?
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