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Many people believed that "when" the Union troops won the First Battle of Bull Run, the South would collapse, and perhaps the Union army could march on Richmond. Throughout the war, politicians and astute military generals were sure the war was almost over. In 1862 as one example, Secretary of War Stanton closed down Union recruiting offices to save money as he was sure the war was almost over. US Grant after his victory at Shiloh also believed the war would end soon. Before the war actually got underway, Jefferson Davis was sure that Great Britain would intercede to end the war because of the loss of Southern cotton. By intercede, he was speaking of brokering a peace deal allowing the South to be independent.

As US President Lincoln said in his Second Inaugural Address, no one thought the war would be as costly and as long as it did at the beginning of the war.

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Q: How long was the civil war supposed to last after bull run?
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