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He has been right 39% of the time.

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13y ago
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Q: How many times has Punxsutawney Phil's prediction been correct?
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More likely to be correct. If you are trying to make a prediction then the probability that you will be correct is related to the strength of the hypotheses on which the prediction is based. Assume that the prediction depended on 3 hypotheses all being correct. Each has a probability say 10 to1, 15 to 1, and 3 to 1. Then the probability against all 3 being correct would be ((11 times 16 times 4)-1) to 1.


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I don't know someone help Me out okay