How many won't vote in 2012 presidential election?

Answer 1

It is difficult to accurately estimate turnout at US federal elections, as presidential ballots do not take place often enough to make accurate predictions and it is difficult to judge what issues will affect turnout from one election to the next. Turnout is determined by a variety of factors, some complex, some simple - even the weather on polling day can have a dramatic impact on turnout levels.

We can however make a tentative estimate of the abstention rate based on previous Presidential elections. There have been five elections since 1965 in which an incumbent President was up for re-election - 1972, 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2004. Based on these elections, we can expect approximately 27% of all registered voters will not vote in the 2012 presidential election, representing 47% of the entire adult population (including non-registered voters).