Is Pakistan at the take off stage?

Answer 1

For Rostow the take off occurs when there is "not only the build up of social overhead capital and a surge of technological development in industry and agriculture, but also the emergence to political power of a group prepared to regard the modernization of the economy as serious, high order political business." At this stage "both the basic structure of the economy and the social and political structure of the society are transformed in such a way that a steady rate of growth can be, thereafter regularly sustained." Such self-sustained growth is based on: (i) a dynamic entrepreneurial elite, (ii) a high rate of domestic savings, (iii) a large professional middle class, (iv) a diversified industrial structure and the institutions for translating scientific research into rapid technological change. Can it be said that these transformations of the political, social and economic structures have been achieved in Pakistan? Surely not, if we consider the facts. Let us take each of these necessary conditions for take off and see if Pakistan has fulfilled them:

(i) The entrepreneurial elite by and large is not characterized by innovative, risk taking captains of industry but by a tradition bound elite that has historically relied on government subsidies and protection measures within a patron client relationship. For example during the early 1960s it has been estimated that the average rate of effective protection was as high as 271%. By the 1990s even though the rates of effective protection had been considerably reduced, the increase in the share of manufacturing attributable to protection amounted to 5% of GNP (Gross National Product).

(ii) The industrial elite far from raising domestic savings and achieving self reliance for the country has engaged in conspicuous consumption. For example during the 1960s, 15% of the resources annually generated in the rural sector were transferred to the urban industrialists and 63% to 85% of these transferred resources went into increased urban consumption. Far from raising the domestic rate to the target level of 25% (which would have reduced dependence on foreign loans) the actual saving rate never rose above 12% right upto the end of the decade of the 1990s.

(iii) Poor coverage of education and even poorer quality of education has meant that the middle class is both narrow and professionally ill equipped to sustain rapid economic growth.

(iv) Failure to diversify is a pronounced feature of Pakistan's industrial structure: For example, the percentage of total investment in the manufacturing sector going into traditional textile and related goods was 41% in 1964-65 and in fact rose slightly to 44% in 1990-91.

Finally both the structures of society and of 'democratic' governance are dominated by the landed elite and the systems of power, pelf and privilege typical of its culture. The nascent social stratum, which seeks to build a progressive society and a dynamic economy based on the discourse of reason, the pre eminence of merit, equality of opportunity, economic welfare of all citizens and honest governance, lives precariously on the margins of the social and political structure.

Given these facts it is no service to the country to mislead the nation into thinking that the necessary social, political and economic features of the take off stage have already been reached. The regime of President Musharraf has taken many hard decisions and has a number of achievements to its credit. However it risks threatening the credibility of its real achievements by claiming what it has not achieved. Pakistan is not yet at the take off stage. The regime may have begun the journey, but it still has a long way to go to reach even the pre take off stage, let alone take off.

Dr.Akmal HussainNewspaper: Daily Times

Dated: Thursday, 1st May 2003