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Phase 1

- Observation and question

- Conjectures

Phase 2

- Hypothesis

- Prediction

- Experimentation

Phase 3

- Peer review

Observation, Question and Conjecture

The first phase represents the transit of the real and physical into the sphere of intellect.

It is said that when Isaac newton observed an apple falling, it led him to question what mechanism was at work. This in turn led him to consider various conjectures and to conduct an examination of the ideas of other researchers from across the world, both contemporaneous and past. From the numerous conjectures he was able to distil and select the most likely explanation for his observation.

This is the way in which scientific advance proceeds. First an observation is made, then a careful consideration of what has been observed and the distillation of a plausible explanation.

Hypothesis, Prediction and Experimentation

The second phase represents the return from the sphere of intellect into the real and physical.

The distillation of ideas results in a hypothesis, which in the case of Newton's gravitational theory was a mathematical model of objects falling under the influence of gravity.

In order for a hypothesis to bear scrutiny, it must be able to accurately predict what will happen under a given set of circumstances. These predictions must then be checked by careful experimentation. When prediction and experiment reach the same conclusion, the hypothesis is borne out; when they do not the hypothesis must be revised to accommodate the findings of the experiment The process of experiment and refinement continues until the predictions concur with the experiment or it becomes clear that they do not. Once concurrence has been achieved, the researcher is ready to proceed to the final phase. Otherwise the hypothesis must be abandoned and the researcher may choose to return to phase 1.

Peer Review

The final phase is the transit of the hypothesis into the broad circulation of scientific ideas.

It begins with the publication of the observation, the hypothesis and the experimental methods and results. At this stage other experimenters will attempt to reproduce the findings. This process may equally result in the revision or abandonment of the hypothesis. If the bulk of the experimenters are in agreement on the hypothesis, it is accepted into scientific literature as a finding. After a certain period of time and repeated experimentation a hypothesis may be promoted to the status of a Law. If they are not in agreement the hypothesis may be abandoned.

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