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Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa are the states that seem to be up for grabs in 2012.

I would not even go that far. Whichever candidate wins the electoral votes from any two of the three of Ohio, Florida and Virginia will win the Presidency. Not that it would not be theoretically possible for one of the candidates to win with fewer of those three States with enough wins in other States--it's just that such permutations are unlikely to combine to occur.

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