The odds of President Obama being re-elected are nearly 70% as of September 20 after Mr. Romney blew off 47% of Americans, but the President was already leading with an upward trend, and Mr. Romney was appreciating a continuing down trend.
That leaves around 30% odds that President Obama will lose. This is according to Intrade (a world predictions market).
President Obama is the obvious front-runner. I can not see his being refused the nomination if he wants it and I think he has enough confidence in himself to think he deserves a run for another term. The election is still almost 2 years away so things could change but right now if I were to bet, I would you give you heavy odds that Obama will run again in 2012.
As evidenced by the takeover of the House by the Republicans in the mid-term election of 2010, President Obama and the Democrats had lost significant support in the electorate, and by late 2011, Obama's approval rating was below 50%. Whether this would translate into a loss in the 2012 election is debatable, and the prospect that another Democratic candidate would be nominated is extremely improbable. No, he is in a fairly good position for re-election in 2012, although nothing is assured. His approval rating in the polls is now higher than any other recent President's. The current Republican field of potential candidates to run against him is much to his advantage, as well. The Intrade odds have President Obama ahead as likely to win in 2012, with a 61.4% chance (and rising) as of early March 2012.
This question was asked before the 2012 election, during which, some polls indicated it would be very close. In the end, while Barack Obama did not get as many popular votes or electoral votes as he did in 2008, he still won in a very convincing manner, and was re-elected president on November 6, 2012.
Sam Torosian is the person believed to have invented the odds. The odds of winning and losing was commonly used in betting.
1:3
Obama
It is very unlikely that Obama has lied under oath. As for "spinning " his policies, putting things in the best light, the odds are very good that he does that. That is what politicians and lawyers learn to do and Obama is both.
Against All Odds - 2012 TV was released on: USA: 12 February 2012
Against All Odds - 2012 - TV was released on: USA: 12 February 2012
1 in 650.
The Jeff Probst Show - 2012 What Are the Odds 1-30 was released on: USA: 19 October 2012
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