1 x140 2 x 79 4 x 35 5 x 28 10 x 14
More than 140 rolls will be required if and only if the sum of the first 140 rolls does not exceed 400Let S = X1 + X2 + ... + X140 where Xi is the number obtained in the ith rollNote E[X] = 7/2, Var[X] = 35/12So E[S] = 140(7/2) = 490, Var[S] = 140(35/12) = 1225/3By Central Limit Theorem, (with continuity correction)Pr{S ≤ 400}≈ Pr{Z < (400.5 - 490)/√(1225/3)}≈ 4.731327 * 10^(-6)
I ran across an alternative on eBay, made my Stens. Here are the details:OEM SPECIFICATION BELT fits JOHN DEERE GX21833 265-238STENS TRUE FIT BELTS - MADE TO EXACT OEM SPECIFICATIONSPart No. 265-238BRAND NEW OEM REPLACEMENT PARTSReplaces OEM Part #(s):JOHN DEERE-GX21833JOHN DEERE-GX20571Fits Models #(s):JOHN DEERE-L120, L130, 145, 155, LA130, LA140 and X140 tractorsReplaces Competitor Part #(s):OREGON-Specifications:Application:DeckLength:141 1/8"Width:1/2"The eBay seller was 'turftractor' = http://myworld.ebay.com/turftractor/ I haven't used it but need to buy a GX21833 myself. Because this one wasn't dramatically cheaper, I think I'll stick with a John Deere belt.