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Who the "swing vote" is varies from issue to issue because the cases before the Supreme Court are complex and don't always fall into "liberal" and "conservative" boxes. It's also a little hard to tell at the moment because the confirmation of Justice Elena Kagan recently changed the composition of the court and we have not gotten to read any of Justice Kagan's opinions yet.

However, with those provisos in mind:

Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Scalia, Thomas, and Alito are considered the most conservative members of the court.

Justice Kennedy is a moderate conservative.

Justices Ginsburg and Breyer are considered more liberal.

Justices Sotomayor and Kagan are newer, but are expected to be in the liberal wing of the court.

If Justices Sotomayor and Kagan both end up voting consistently with Justices Ginsburg and Breyer, then Justice Kennedy would be the swing vote on the Court.

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13y ago
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13y ago

Justice Anthony Kennedy is the only real swing voter on the current Court.

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Q: Who are the justices that will usually swing votes in the US supreme court?
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How did the Supreme Court begin to change to a more conservative posture?

The Supreme Court became more conservative because many vacancies occurred during Republican administrations, giving conservative Presidents an opportunity to replace liberal justices with more conservative justices. The Court seems to swing from one poll to the other over the course of time. Both the Roberts Court and the Rehnquist Court have been conservative; prior to that, the Burger Court was moderate and Warren Court was progressive. The ideology of the US Supreme Court is unlikely to change during President Obama's tenure in office because the two most likely justices to retire (Stevens and Ginsburg) are liberal.


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Five of the nine justices are typically considered conservative (Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Scalia, Thomas, Alito and Kennedy), while four are considered reliably liberal (Justices Stevens, Ginsburg, Breyer and Sotomayor). Justice Kennedy, although classified as a conservative, has voted with the liberal faction on some cases, making him the unpredictable swing vote that helps balance the Court.


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On today's Court (2009), a 5-4 vote most likely means the Justices voted by political ideology, with Justice Kennedy as the swing vote. Split votes are common right now because the Court is ideologically polarized.


What are the two main voting blocks on the supreme court?

The two main voting blocks on the Supreme Court are typically referred to as the liberal wing and the conservative wing. The liberal wing usually consists of justices who generally support more liberal interpretations of the law and tend to favor progressive outcomes in cases. The conservative wing generally consists of justices who interpret the law more conservatively and tend to favor conservative outcomes. However, it is important to note that the Court's composition and dynamics can vary over time and on specific issues.


Which justices on the US Supreme Court are considered conservatives?

Justices Thomas and Scalia are, perhaps, the most conservative; the only justice listed whose voting record approaches moderate is Justice Kennedy, the swing vote who has been known to side with the progressives on the Court. Recently, his record of jurisprudence has been more conservative.Justice Clarence ThomasJustice Antonin ScaliaJustice Samuel AlitoChief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr.Justice Anthony Kennedy


Why does the Supreme Court require a simple majority for a decision rather than five votes?

If all nine justices hear a case, five must agree on a decision because five votes represents a simple majority of the full court.A decision requires a simple majority of the Justices hearing the case; sometimes fewer than nine justices are available. In the typical instance that all nine Supreme Court justices provide an opinion, a majority must consist of at least five votes; if eight justices are present, a decision still requires five votes; if six or seven justices are present, a decision requires at least four votes. The Court requires a quorum (the minimum number to conduct official business) of at least six justices to hear a case or conduct a vote.On the current Court, votes are often split by ideology. Many decisions are resolved as 5-4 votes because four of the Court members are conservative and four are progressive. Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, who could be regarded as being center-right, is often the swing voter determining which side is in the majority.Those jurists who disagree with the majority are permitted -- but not required -- to write dissenting opinions which also form part of the record, and may be cited in future litigation.In the event of tie votes by the Supreme Court, the lower court's ruling in the case being considered is upheld without comment. In other words, the Supreme Court issues no permanent decision on the laws involved in the case. Optionally, the Court may choose to hear reargument on the case, with the addition of the justice or justices who weren't present during the original oral arguments.For more information, see Related Questions, below.


Who is the US Supreme Court justice that is most likely to be the swing vote?

At the moment, Associate Justice Anthony M. Kennedy.


How many justices need to agree with each other to issue a majority decision?

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What Article or Amendment specifies the number of US Supreme Court justices?

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What function does Anthony Kennedy perform in the US Supreme Court?

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Do US Supreme Court votes have to be unanimous?

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