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Saudi Arabia made a devil's bargain with al-Qaeda. In return for supplying al-Qaeda with a certain amount of financial assets and weapons, al-Qaeda would not attack or create cells in Saudi Arabia. It is not that al-Qaeda does not have the ability to establish a foothold in Saudi Arabia, it has simply contracted out of it. And, of course, Saudi Arabia would be a fertile recruitment ground for al-Qaeda, considering that 15 out of the 19 hijackers on September 11th were born and bred in Saudi Arabia.

The Saudis and al-Qaeda know, though, that this agreement will not hold forever. This is because al-Qaeda sees the Saud Dynasty as illegitimate controllers of the Islamic holy sites and will eventually have to overthrow them to help establish a caliphate. It will be interesting to see whether the Saudis will make an aggressive move against al-Qaeda first or if al-Qaeda will make an aggressive move against the Saudis first.

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