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As with all weather forecasts, there is always some uncertainty in severe weather outlooks. In the case of the storms that occurred in late May 2016, conditions favored supercells with strong rotation more than was expected. Forecasts are based heavily on computerized models, which are imperfect but are often tweaked and improved.

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Q: Why was there an EF4 Tornado and numerous tornadoes on days that only had a 5 percent risk for tornadoes throughout the May 22 nd-27 th 2016 tornado outbreak sequence?
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