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Maybe. Natural gas has a very good chance of being the first to run out.

New deposits of coal, natural gas and oil are being discovered, but many are convinced that the new discoveries will not be sufficient to make up for the present decline in production rates. This is called "peak oil" and there has been much discussion about it for at least the last 45 years. Many experts believe that peak oil and gas occurred in the last 10 years.

There is uncertainty in the total supply of coal, natural gas and oil. Also, the rate which we will consume these fuels in the future is uncertain. It is likely however that as the fossil fuels become more scarce, their cost will increase causing lower demand. This does not mean we can avoid running out of fossil fuels, but will delay the end of these fuels.

Natural gas may be in very limited supply in the future and could be the first fossil fuel to run out. In some remote places, it is not easy to transport gas, so small offshore deposits may not be commercial. The US is exploiting new sources of gas, in particular shale gas and this may keep prices relatively low for a long time. With low natural gas prices, the consumption is unlikely to go down, meaning more rapid depletion of supply.

So, to get back to your question, either gas or oil will run out first. Both are likely to be in tight supply in 50 to 60 years.

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Q: Will oil be the first fossil fuel to run out?
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