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The law of one price suggests that identical goods selling in different countries should sell at the same price, and that exchange rates relate these identical values, leading to purchasing power parity theory, which suggests that changes in exchange rates over time must reflect relative changes in inflation between two countries. If purchasing power parity holds true, the forward rate (Sf) can be forecast from the current spot rate (S0) by multiplying the ratio of expected inflation rates ((1+ia)/ (1+ib)) in the two counties being considered. In formula form: Sf = S0 (1+ia)/ (1+ib). where "a" and "b" represents the two countries.

by Oyedeji Olufunso Oyeleke

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Q: How inflation rates can be used to forecast exchange rates?
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