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It means that studying developments in the past that have led to a present 'dangerous' situation - or studying the course of action and outcome of similar dangerous situations that have occurred in the past - can help you to decide on the best course of action to get out of a trouble spot.

A recent example: the actions of the West in Libya of a few years ago in getting rid of its leader Gadaffi only led to total chaos and civil war in that country. That piece of history is now a 'guide' for the West in deciding what to to about Syria and its leader Assad. Also, the tribal and religious history of that country country and its neighbours gives a good indication what might happen next if Assad is 'simply' removed.

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