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Probably the key event of the war was the rapid collapse of the French military in May 1940.
This collapse enabled Germany to preserve her military strength for future conquests. The assets seized in France (trucks, a nearly two year supply of petroleum, bases for submarines and aircraft, etc.) enabled Germany to consider for the first time that they might reasonably have a chance to change the course of world history. The French collapse caused nations such as Romania and Bulgaria to quickly align with Germany rather than remain neutral.
If France had held out, escaped collapse, held the Germans before Paris - then Germany would not have been able to fight a long war. Germany was much weaker economically in 1940 than they were in 1914 and would have been able to continue the fight only another year or so at which time they would have had to sue for terms.
If France holds, the Soviets grow more bold in the east. Japan likely backs down to American pressure on the China issue. Basically the war ends in 1941 with a heavily chastised Germany - a war short in time, with limited casualties and little impact beyond the central European area. The French and British empires last a lot longer since they would not have been financially ruined by war costs. The USA would continue as the world's #1 economy but would be unentangled otherwise with other nations.
1: Pearl Harbor 2: Battle of The Bulge 3: D-Day 4: Iwo Jima 5: V E Day
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