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Yes, El Nino can be predicted to an extent: we usually have a pretty good idea where it will be up through at least 6 months, and sometimes more. We are able to do this by extensively monitoring the source region of El Nino (or more correctly, El Nino Southern Oscillation, which also includes La Nina). Here in the Tropical Pacific Ocean, ocean temperatures are carefully monitored with networks of buoys as well as using special types of sensors mounted on satellites. Atmospheric conditions are also obtained from satellites, some buoys, and radiosondes.

All of these data are collected and run through supercomputers, which model the future state of the atmosphere and ocean. Many of these models are run at the same time, and usually the prediction is somewhere around the middle road of the model runs. They are then continuously refined as time goes on and more data are obtained, and the forecasts are always being updated.

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15y ago

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