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According to the Scripps Institute, La Nina conditions (ie eastern pacific cooling) are likely to persist until the middle of this year. El Nino is forecast to become the prevailing phase in the end of the year and the beginning of next (2010) See http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html The Australian Bureau of Meteorology seems to concur. They publish several different researchers computer modelling, and La Nina will remain for another few months, it may then be neutral or starting an El Nino later in the year, See http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml So to answer your question, 2009 is not an El Nino year as such, but it may see the start of one, leading on to 2010, which presumably will be an El Nino year. Dr J K Monro, Wellington.

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16y ago

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