What does probability have to do with natural selection and evolution?

Answer 1

Another answer from our community:

Given the complexity in the DNA discovered by science, the laws of probability, when applied to evolution (in the fullest sense from molecules to man) demonstrate it to be impossible.

Answer 2

Some of the most impressive-sounding criticisms of the conventional theory of biological evolution involve probability. On the basis of such arguments, some conclude that the currently accepted theories of naturalistic origin of life and evolution are seriously flawed. It is well known among mathematicians that probability arguments are treacherous - even experts can fool themselves. In the hands of those who are not expert both in probability and evolution, and especially in the hands of someone with an agenda to advance, the results are likely to be almost universally invalid.

One flaw, common to many arguments of this sort, is that it is an after-the-fact assessment of probability, which is unreliable without a very careful consideration of all possible alternate contingencies. Many probability-based arguments against evolution assume an all-at-once, completely random assemblage with no pre-existing structure, but this is most assuredly not what has happened. The organisms we see today are the end products of countless generations over many millions of years, taking a small step each time.

Probability calculations should be a tool to help us calibrate the diversity of life and the extent to which various lineages may have diverged from common ancestors. Instead, they often are used as a tool to manipulate scientifically unsophisticated audiences.

Answer 3

Probability plays a role in natural selection by determining the likelihood of advantageous genetic mutations occurring in a population. Genetic variation arises from random mutations, and individuals with beneficial mutations are more likely to survive and reproduce, passing on those advantageous traits to future generations. Over time, these adaptations can become more prevalent in a population through natural selection, driven by the probabilities of reproductive success associated with specific genetic variations.