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There quite a few problems with long term forecasting. There are obviously different layers of the atmosphere and meteorologists have to analyze all the layers to figure out what is going on in the upper layers. Also, there are quite a few different models that they have to look at and each of those models forecast something different meaning the models barely ever agree on what will happen. For example one model might track a Low pressure system to move north across the northern parts of the US then another model might have it take a track north then dip south across the central plains then back north across the Ohio valley. So there are quite a few different problems they face when they are forecasting for the long term.

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