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This is a simple question, and unfortunately, there is no simple answer. The problem is there is no average oil rate from a well.

Oil forcasting is done by developing a production profile, or how much oil per year will the field produce. If a field is forecasted to produce 10,000 bbl/day and decline 10% per year, the production profile would be:

Year 1: 10,000 bbl/d 3.7 MMBO = first year production

Tear 2: 9,000 bbl/d 3.3 MMBO = second year

Year 3 8,100 bbl/d 2.9 MMBO = third year

So in the above case, 10 million bbls (10 MMBO) were produced in 3 years. This is possible in a high permeable field that contains a large volume of oil initially, perhaps 100 million bbls.

Now, suppose our field's initial rate is 1500 bbl/day and declines 10% per year. In 100 years, it will only produce 6 million bbls, but the rates will be very low (less than 1 bbl/day). The field might be shut-in when it is uneconomical to produce, perhaps in 30 - 70 years.

So, my answer is to produce 10 million bbls could take anywhere from 1 year to 100 years, or may never be produced from a field, depending on conditions.

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14y ago

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