When managers are unable to even assign probabilities to the outcomes attached to various problem-solving alternatives?

Answer 1

Lack of information is what this sounds like. To fully understand something, one must find all the pieces of knowledge of that thing, and see how they interact with each other. This is why scientists experiment, so they can find all the info. they need, to put together the whole system in there minds; so they can use it for this or that.

Problem example: I have a jar. I have a lid. The jar needs a lid. So I say, no problem. But as I begin to screw the lid on, I find that it's to small. So I say, I need the right size lid. I take measurements from the jar, or whatever I may need, so that now I'm ready to fix my problem. Let's break this down. What was before the we found the problem; the jar's need for the lid. And the problem came when that need could not be met.

Now from what your question implies, you are trying to fix the problem by throwing alternative lids at the jar until one of them fits; and becoming irritated at the managers, for not knowing which one of them will probably fit.

So here's my answer. Don't come up with many alternatives to a problem; because it's getting ahead of the game. Instead, send the managers out to measure the need of the company, so you can then fill those needs precisely. And to the people that don't understand, you have to tell them every detail.