Should people be worried about an eruption in Yellowstone?

Answer 1

Most likely not. A recent study found the probability of a Krakatoa-sized eruption to be about 1 in 200,000 in any given year. The probability of a super eruption was far less likely. Seismic analysis suggests that the magma chamber is starting to cool and crystallize, making it too viscous to erupt unless there is a dramatic change.

There is a common misconception that Yellowstone is "overdue" for a super eruption, as it erupts every 600,000 years and the last super eruption was 640,000 years ago. In reality the volcano does not erupt regularly and has gone much longer spans without a super eruption. The current volcano has produced three super eruptions 2.1 million, 1.3 million, and 640,000 years ago. This gives intervals of 800,000 and 660,000 years. However, three events is not enough to deduce a pattern.