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Jaguars are quick, strong, smart, and not easily intimidated... A bear is very strong, not as quick, husky, and not as bright as the cat. A jaguar could easily avoid and attack the bear with its cunning speed. A bear could end the jaguar in a few good strong hits.
Bears size and weight make it almost impossible to quickly defend its self from the back, the jaguar could easily move around the bear and attack from the back, destroying the sides and back legs.
A bears first reaction in a fight would be to rear up on its back legs to get ready for the attack, leaving the belly wide open for the jaguar easily to attack, jaguars are very quick making it easy to keep behind the bear and get easy swipes in. Also considering cats prowl, they dont go straight in unless surprised by a predator. A bear has a slow but deadly swing compared to a cats, If the bear caught the cat at the right moment, fights over, Bear wins...
Bears can smell a carrion from 10-20 miles away, making the scent of a living animal around 2-4 miles if they leave a strong smell, WHICH JAGUARS DO NOT DO. Cats are made to kill with surprise, jaguar would always be ready for any predator with its amazing hearing.
The fight would rely on who saw who first, a jaguar would more then likely hear the bear before it could locate and and began to prowl waiting for the right moment to attack. During the fight a jaguar would maul out the bears eyes before it could even hit the jaguar, the bear would more then likely try to back off, if it did continue to fight, the bear would rear up and leave the belly wide open.... fights over jaguar wins.
Another major factor is terrain, in a forest/jungle area, Jaguar wins no questions asked. In a valley or open area, the bear would have chance but then the fight would rely on the experience of the animal, age, size, muscle mass, weight, and many other various factors.
The probability of an average bear beating an average jaguar would not be very high, the cat will win for the majority of the time, if not every.
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