How does the 2009 swine flu compare to the 1918 Spanish flu?

Answer 1

It doesn't even come close, so far. As of 29 June 2009 the cumulative total number of officially confirmed cases of Novel H1N1 World Wide is reported to be 70, 893 confirmed cases and 311 deaths since beginning in late March. It is estimated that approximately one million people so far in the US alone have been infected by the virus although the officially tested and confirmed case count is significantly lower. Some estimates are that approximately 6% of a community with epidemic spreading of the disease have become infected. During the Spanish Flu epidemic between 30 and 100 million people died in the one year pandemic. There were 17 million deaths in India alone. The upper figure represents 5% of the world population of the time.

The Novel H1N1 Flu pandemic's mortality rate among those with confirmed cases of the flu world wide have been around 0.4%. This is more similar to the regular seasonal flu death rates (0.12% typically in the US) in the first wave than it is to the 5% mortality rate of the Spanish Flu.

Novel H1N1 is a brand new virus so people do not have hereditary immunity, without prior reference for comparison it is unknown exactly how it may evolve or mutate as it spreads around the world. The Spanish Flu started with a very mild first wave and it was the second wave that became much more deadly as that outbreak spread across the world again.

The Spanish Flu, however, was not a strain of swine flu. It is believed to have been a strain of bird (Avian) flu. It was named the Spanish Flu because it was believed to have started in Spain.

The Spanish Flu hit right after World War 1, and the world was in bad shape. There was no World Health Organization to coordinate efforts between countries, nor any serious vaccines to fight the pandemic. Similar to the Novel H1N1 Demographics for victims in the young, healthy group of individuals (H1N1 victims' median age is 19), the Spanish Flu's victims did not fit any specific demographic which Infectious Diseases and flu usually affected, e.g., the sick, the elderly, and the very young. It, like the new H1N1, hit the seemingly healthy, adults in their 20s and 30s.

The most cases of Novel H1N1 are in a younger healthier age group as well, it is affecting mostly those in age range of 5 - 24, but also people with underlying chronic diseases such as asthma are what seem to be factors in the demographic of the Novel H1N1 victims. The age group with the current H1N1 with the most deaths is the 30-50 year old population, especially with underlying health problems or pregnant women. The 1918 influenza swept the world in multiple waves more virulent than the first wave, then disappeared just as surprisingly as when it started. It is early in the 2009 pandemic and increasing numbers are still being reported in most every part of the globe. It is unknown if it will follow the same repetitious pattern of waves as the Spanish Flu took.