Is there a shortage for pilots?

Answer 1

Outside the USA and Europe there is a pilot shortage in most commercial flying, including major airlines. This should continue and get worse as their aviation industries are growing much faster than they can recruit and train pilots. In India the government is trying to recruit civil servants to become pilot instructors, as all the instructor pilots at their pilot schools have been hired away by the airlines. Foreign pilots are actively recruited to the Middle and Far-East, Russia, Africa, India. Pay and benefits are of course much higher in those places, about what pilots in the USA used to earn twenty years ago (adjusted for inflation).

In the USA and Europe demand is growing steadily, while supply is shrinking and the majority of airline pilots are in their mid-50s to early-60s and will be retiring in large numbers soon. Those lines are approaching each other, and soon supply will not be adequate. The least desireable pilot positions will be vacated first, it is expected the low-cost and ultra-low-cost carriers will see their schedules cut back for lack of pilots first. Roger Cohen, President of the Regional Aircraft Association, has stated that many US airports will be losing scheduled air service due to lack of pilots, in the near future. A4A, the trade organization for the major airlines, consistently responds that there will be no shortage of pilots this decade or longer. The difference is that the major airlines expect to be able to poach pilots from the regional and low-cost airlines indefinitely. The major airlines know a pilot shortage will benefit them by crippling the budget carriers, allowing the majors to control prices again.

In the USA, the cost to become a commercial airline pilot for those few who have what it takes, has risen to $200k and five-to-ten years training and experience. Nearly everyone hired at the airlines in the USA over the past 20 years has been hired at the low-paying regional airlines. Over half of those hired at the major airlines in the past 20 years have been furloughed for half that long. The pay starts at less than a full-time minimum-wage worker, rises slowly for years, and by retirement reaches the pay of an engineer or middle-management. If a pilot moves to the major airlines it usually happens at middle-age, and starting pay is just over $20k/year. If that pilot has kids, the family will qualify for government food assistance.

There is a shortage, not everywhere yet, and not in every industry. Forcasting when, where, and how severe is difficult. What to do about it depends on your interests. The airlines would like to see pilots allowed in cockpits with very little training or experience, that would lower their labor costs. Safety advocates disagree with that. Pilots suggest raising pay enough to attract pilots and stop the decline in students entering pilot training. Single-pilot airlines are not an option in even the most modern airliners and large cargo planes, without significant modifications to airplanes, the air traffic control systems, and airports.

If we wait to make changes until we are in a crisis, we will be forced to compromise safety. The people with money and power in aviation can make more money by reducing safety, so they prefer to wait. Formerly powerful airline labor unions are virtually powerless, they are not allowed to strike or take any job action under the Railway Labor Act. Safety advocates gain attention and influence only after a large number of deaths due to pilot mistakes. The recent Colgan Air and Air France crashes did get them some attention, but memories are short.